Economics: Activity figures published in June point to stagnation for the rest of 2025

MEXICO - Report 07 Jul 2025 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

Following May’s report showing that Q1 GDP edged up only around half a point in the first quarter, this past month’s aggregate supply and demand results filled out the picture as it showed a 25% drop in public investment, private investment turning sharply negative and consumption weakening considerably amid a weaker job market. Only a strong trade report kept the economy from contracting in the first quarter.

According to recent IGAE figures, there was a very slight rebound in economic activity in April, with manufacturing and services up along with agriculture, even as mining and construction plunged anew. But there was not enough good news to deny that the Mexican economy remains in a downward spiral and is on track to shrink slightly this year.

The negative panorama was reinforced by indicators released just this past week as a slight April uptick in private consumption proved so weak that it left the cumulative drop for January-April near a full percentage point. Gross fixed investment contracted an annual -7.7% in April while the slump in consumer confidence dating back to November of last year extended through June.

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