Economic growth decelerates in August, albeit unevenly across sectors

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Sep 2022 by Alexander Kudrin

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP) grew by 3.7% in 8M22 (in 7M22 it was up by 4.0%). The Kazakh statistical agency doesn't publish m-o-m and even y-o-y monthly figures for some economic indicators so that only cumulative numbers, such as the aforementioned 8M22 are available. Moreover, if monthly statistics are available, it is often not unusual to see that the published y-o-y and m-o-m figures do not match each other (such as in the case of retail sales). These inaccuracies largely stem from a very non-linear economic performance in 2020-2021, i.e., during the pandemic when imposed restrictions caused some structural shocks for the economy, which statisticians were in principle unable to capture. Later on, these inconsistencies will be eliminated, but currently it is worth relying on officially published cumulative y-o-y figures. Economic performance in Kazakhstan was rather uneven across segments in 8M22. Retail sales, for instance, which were reportedly down by 15.9% y-o-y in January, were up by 2.1% both in 7M22 and 8M22, therefore, indicating that the base effects which were still strong earlier this year gradually evaporated. Construction, agriculture, trade (wholesale and retail), transportation and storage combined, communications were up by 7.5%, 4.3%, 5.2%, 5.4%, 6.6% in 8M22 (all figures are y-o-y). Industrial output grew in 8M22 by a mere 2.5% y-o-y (down from 2.7% in 7M22). This deceleration is still being caused by scheduled maintenance works on the country's oil fields – this time on the Tengiz. Scheduled works began on August 1, and were supposed to last about a month or slightly more (oil ...