Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 May 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for this indicator. In 1Q25, it reportedly grew by 8.3% y-o-y. Generally, the 4M25 y-o-y growth occurred amid a relatively unimpressive growth in 4M24 – by 3.9% y-o-y (and 1Q24, this indicator was up by 4.7% y-o-y). Looking at a broader range of available data for selected segments and reconstructing this indicator’s m-o-m statistics (with certain reservations and assumptions), one may cautiously conclude that there is no evidence of a m-o-m growth in moving averages. This conclusion doesn’t contradict the 6.2% reported growth of this indicator. Indeed, the officially reported y-o-y growth of 8.5% in 4M25 and 3.9% in 4M24 would, on average, give the same 6.2%. In the absence of the official m-o-m data and very uneven y-o-y statistics (with a sudden acceleration of economic growth in 4Q24, which could at least partially result from some under-reporting during the year offset in 4Q24), we believe that in mid-year, the short-term indicator will exhibit a deceleration. Still, the economy is heading toward well above 5.0% GDP growth.According to the Bureau, transportation and warehousing remained the fastest-growing segment of the country’s economy in 4M25 (up by 22.4% y-o-y). It echoes our long-standing view that the Kazakh economy should become a more popular transit hub where routes from Russia to southern countries and to Europe from Asia intersect. We believe these trends will keep ...