Economic growth moderated but remains stable

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Jun 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which measures combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, IT/communications, and trade, grew by 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26, slightly higher than the 4.2% growth in the first four months. In May alone, it rose by 4.1%. After a slow start to the year due to disruptions in oil production and exports from damage to the CPC oil terminal, the indicator has been growing above 4.0% y-o-y, and the figure will likely remain high as the impact of the early-year shock fades. In 5M26, the strongest y-o-y growth was seen in construction (13.4%), transportation and warehousing (8.4%), and trade (5.6%), while industry (2.5%), agriculture (3.6%), and IT/communications (3.7%) lagged behind. In the trade sector, wholesale trade rose by 6.5% y-o-y, while retail sales grew by just 3.6%. These figures are heavily influenced by base effects, as 2025 saw unexpectedly strong growth - wholesale trade was up 8.3% y-o-y and retail sales by 6.5% in 5M25. With last year’s growth picking up in the second half, the base effect will likely weigh on this year’s rates in 2H26. However, retail sales may benefit moderately from a boost in household consumption in the second half, supported by over KZT 4.0 trillion in delayed spending from various budget levels due to be allocated in 2H26. Investments in 5M26 and in May alone increased by 7.0% and 7.2% y-o-y, respectively. Overall, domestic demand remains strong, though its growth has slowed after last year’s overheating. We expect GDP to grow by about 5.0% in 2026, despite a modest 3.0% y-o-y rise in 1Q26, as the early-year slowdown was largely due to...