Economic growth moderates in January

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 16 Feb 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there are clear signs that the economic growth moderated in January. Industry, for example, grew by a mere 3.4% y-o-y - with the mining segment expanding by a mere 0.2% y-o-y. Retail sales increased by 3.7% y-o-y and also posted a slowdown. Investment in production capacity also grew moderately – by 0.6% y-o-y. It is too early to make any strong call on growth deceleration as, in some segments, statistical data in Kazakhstan are quite “volatile,” i.e., what was underreported in some months can appear in higher monthly growth numbers in the future. However, even with the recently reported deceleration, the country’s economic growth of over 4.0% looks decent.

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