Economic growth remains stable in June and 1H23

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Jul 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly aggregate measure of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications grew by 5.6% y-o-y in 1H23, which was well above 4.5% y-o-y reported for 5M23. It means that y-o-y growth accelerated in June. Note, that in many cases the Bureau doesn't regularly publish m-o-m statistics and even y-o-y data for individual months. Therefore, sectoral statistics on economic activity remain fragmented as only y-o-y data for incremental periods from the start of a calendar year is usually available. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in 1H23, investments in production capacity grew by 13.1% y-o-y. Retail sales, agricultural output, and industry were up y-o-y by 8.8%, 3.2%, and 3.8% in 1H23. The mining and manufacturing segments of the latter grew by 3.7% and 3.4% y-o-y over the same period (industry in total grew faster than these two segments as electric power generation and supply, water supply and a few other smaller segments of the industry outpaced them). Overall, it looks as though following some deceleration in May, economic activity in Kazakhstan accelerated in June again. Within the next couple of days, we plan to digest June's economic statistics and update our forecast.