Economic growth steadily remains above expectations

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 14 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics officially announced that in 9M25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.3% as key segments performed unexpectedly well. The industry was up y-o-y by 7.3% (with mining delivering faster growth at 9.3% while manufacturing grew by 6.2%). Construction delivered 14.9% y-o-y growth, and the transportation/warehousing segment reportedly expanded by an impressive 21.1% y-o-y. The services segment as a whole (including slow growing activities linked to the public sector) was up by 5.2% with the wholesale and retail sales combined delivering 8.8% y-o-y growth.October’s monthly statistics backed up the impressive 9M25 GDP growth figures, with the short-term indicator—a monthly gauge covering six key sectors making up over 60% of total economic activity—rising 9.1% y-o-y in 10M25, matching the pace of 9M25. This “explosive” growth came alongside steadily increasing imports and was largely fueled by capital inflows, including both direct and portfolio investments. As a result, the current account deficit expanded to $3.1 billion in 3Q25, up from nearly $2.9 billion in 2Q25 and $1.0 billion in 1Q25. Increased foreign investment inflows broke the tenge’s natural depreciation trend, with USD/KZT now trading in the 520–525 range after nearly hitting 550 about two months earlier. However, Kazakhstan’s income balance stayed in deficit, widening to roughly $6.3 billion in 3Q25 from about $5.3 billion in 2Q23.Kazakhstan seems poised to keep attracting foreign investments as long as the global economy remains relatively stable. However, potential global shocks could shake up the nation’s growth model and affect the current unexpectedly high growth figures.