Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 05 Dec 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously mentioned that industrial growth suddenly accelerated and grew in seasonally adjusted terms by the unusual 3.0% m-o-m in October. The y-o-y growth was 3.1% in October which lifted the 10M25 y-o-y growth to 1.0% (from 0.7% y-o-y in 9M25). Increased budgetary spending was the likely stimulus for selected segments in manufacturing.Agriculture was another driver in October as its y-o-y growth accelerated in October amid base effects, such as a poor harvest last year. Agriculture grew by 7.0% and 2.8% y-o-y in October and 10M25. The improved performance in industry and agriculture was kind of a trigger for the transportation segment. It was up by 2.7% y-o-y in October but still moderately down in 10M25 (by 0.4% y-o-y). Construction keeps demonstrating low single-digit y-o-y growth (between 2.3% and 3.0%).Slowing inflation and somewhat lower interest rates caused consumer credit to expand moderately. As a result, retail sales grew by 4.8% y-o-y in October, while the 10M25 tally climbed to 2.4% y-o-y (as opposed to 2.1% in 9M25. Disinflation also positively affected various consumer services which grew at about the same rate as retail sales in 10M25.We expect mixed results in November. On the one hand continuous disinflation will have a positive impact on consumer demand, but, on the other hand, fewer working days last month (19 as opposed to 21 in November 24) will negatively affect s...