Economic statistics could look even more puzzling this year

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 13 Feb 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing January data, and the first reports are as puzzling as ever. With m-o-m data missing for many time series and, in some cases, m-o-m and y-o-y figures showing growing discrepancies, it looks like we can expect more statistical mysteries this year.For example, the Bureau reported that in January 2026, transportation and warehousing rose by 5.1% y-o-y, compared to a 20.4% increase for all of 2025. In January 2025, it unexpectedly jumped by 19.0% y-o-y following 8.5% growth in 2024. Although oil transportation through the CPC fell this year due to the damage, the overall effect on the entire sector was likely not that significant. Meanwhile, the unexplained surge in 2025 is less clear and could cast doubt on the Prime Minister’s preliminary GDP growth estimate of 6.5% for that year.The trade sector reportedly slowed in January, rising just 2.9% y-o-y. For 2025 overall, it grew by 8.9%, accelerating from 3.9% y-o-y growth in January 2025. This kind of mid-year pickup after a slow start isn’t unusual in many sectors, so Kazakh economic data should be viewed with some caution. A broader set of monthly figures will be released next week, which may offer a clearer picture, while budget execution statistics due at the end of the month could also help confirm trends. Still, it seems unlikely that higher VAT alone explains January’s reported slowdown in economic growth.Overall, economic trends this year could appear shaky, especially with the continued rise of the tenge. At the time of writing, it was trading around USD/KZT495, much stronger than mid-2025 when it neared 550. An overly strong tenge will not only drag economic gr...