Economic trends don’t look great, while statistics still puzzles

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 08 Apr 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimate, the Russian nominal GDP reached R213.5 trln (about $2.55 trln) and grew by 1.0%. On April 10, the statistical agency will publish GDP sectoral breakdown by production activity and by end-use, including quarterly data. So far, the 4Q25 numbers are unavailable, and the forthcoming release of 2025 full-year statistics may alter previously published data. Hence, the recent short-term growth trajectory remains murky, even though it points to a sharp deceleration, which could extrapolate even in GDP contraction this year, as Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, i.e., a monthly snapshot of economic activity) fell in 2M26 by 2.8% y-o-y. In February alone, it was down by 2.5% y-o-y. Whether one can trust these numbers is an open question, as the available statistics pose several puzzles to be solved (possibly by enthusiasts).We previously mentioned that the 2M26 industrial statistics are now based on 2023 prices and the respective weights of industrial segments, whereas for previous years, Rosstat applied 2018 prices with different weights. By offering such a peculiar mix of data, the statistical agency encourages enthusiasts to reconcile the significantly inconsistent m-o-m and y-o-y data for 2M26. According to Rosstat, the industrial output fell y-o-y by 0.8% and 0.9% in January and February. However, if one takes the published m-o-m data as given, then the industry appears to have grown by about 4% to 5% y-o-y in these two months. Having also announced that seasonally adjusted industrial output grew in February 2026 by 0.3% m-o-m, Rosstat offere...