Economic trends look unimpressive but the trajectory is unclear

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 04 Jun 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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We recently noted that official industrial statistics have been hard to use since the start of this year, as the time series for industry and its segments seems to mix two different base years. Starting in 2026, Rosstat began using 2023 fixed prices, while until 2025 it used 2018 fixed prices and product weights. This caused m-o-m and y-o-y figures for January to April to not align. Still, Rosstat claimed industrial production rose by 0.7% y-o-y in 4M26, and that in seasonally adjusted terms it hadn’t contracted m-o-m since November 2025, instead showing moderate but steady monthly growth.A couple of weeks ago, Rosstat also reported that GDP fell by 0.2% y-o-y, based on a flash estimate using 2021 fixed prices, with no breakdown by production or end-use.The recently released 4M26 economic statistics, covering a wider range of indicators, still don’t offer much clarity on the details of the Russian economy. What is certain is that the economy exists, but whether it’s shrinking, stagnating, or growing remains unclear.For example, the traditional basic sectors output, i.e. an indicator, which tracks monthly aggregate activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, fell by 0.7% y-o-y in 1Q26 and by just 0.1% y-o-y in 4M26, according to Rosstat. In April alone, it officially rose 1.7% y-o-y, having contracted 1.9% m-o-m in seasonally unadjusted terms, and these figures don't quite add up. If the latter figure is correct, April’s y-o-y growth should have been around 6.0%. For context, April 2025 saw 5.5% m-o-m contraction, i.e., much deeper than in April 2026. It looks even more puzzling that until April 2026 all m-o-m and y-o-y short-term indicat...