Economics: The economics of electoral preferences

MEXICO - Report 09 Apr 2018 by Mauricio Gonzalez and Esteban Manteca

Although the economy is one of the two main areas of policy voters are most concerned about (the other being security), the various candidates have failed so far to offer the sort of precise economic policy proposals that might sway the considerable percentage of voters who remain uncommitted. The results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters (March 3) point to connections between voter’s assessments of the economic situation of the country and their respective households, and their party and candidate preferences, an analysis that helps us anticipate how the various presidential campaigns are likely to fine-tune their economic proposals during the three months left in the campaign.

All three major candidates continue to generate considerable more concern than enthusiasm for their main policy ideas, but respondents were more or less evenly divided over which of the three major presidential candidates would do the most to promote economic development. However, clearer differentiations were apparent when we demographically parsed the data.

In general López Obrador enjoys a slight technical lead over Ricardo Anaya (27% to 23%), followed by José Antonio Meade at 20%, with 28% undecided or unwilling to say. RA enjoys strongest support among the unemployed and students, groups in which the preferences for JAM are lowest. AMLO has the strongest backing among workers and housewives. JAM achieves the same percentage of voting intention as AMLO only among housewives, and lags RA among workers by a single point, but appears to be trailing in all other instances, including very low preferences among the unemployed and students.

On the ABC socioeconomic scale, AMLO receives the highest percentages of voting intentions in all strata with the exception of the wealthiest voters, among whom RA enjoys a slight edge; the latter places second in all other strata, except the lowest rung, in which JAM outperforms him, but AMLO leads him by a percentage point.

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