Effective deeds and not only sweet words
Alianza Pais, the most powerful political party of the last 10 years, finally broke last week when the hard Correista group decided to exit the party and create a new one called The People’s Revolution headed once more by Rafael Correa.
This group is actively campaigning against the “yes” to the questions in the coming referendum of February 4, while Morenistas from AP together with the opposition led by Guillermo Lasso, favor the a positive answer to all questions.
Thus, the political environment is changing very fast and is quite confusing. Morenistas and the opposition are acting together (and against Correistas) for certain issues while Morenistas and Correistas colluded in the Assembly to suspend the political trial against former Vice President Glass. Although the impeachment was not necessary to condemn Glass, who was already serving time in jail, it was expected by citizens as a symbolic political punishment censuring his corrupt actions.
This event together with the recent Assange-related international fiasco that made many world newspaper’s headlines, with foreign Relations Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa in the leading role, and the evidence that the economic management looks too close to that of the former president, raises suspicion as to whether differences between Moreno and Correa are more of form and style than of principle and conviction.
Recent polls give an average 70% in favor of the referendum and intention of replying yes to all seven questions. If these numbers are right, this will represent an important political victory for Moreno. However, the expectations this referendum has raised on producing real institutional, political, and economic changes will force the president to respond accordingly to maintain his current public support.
The pressure to release a serious economic program is important. The Comptroller General is auditing public debt from 2012 to 2017 and has appointed a committee of citizens to accompany this audit. The recommendations coming next April are legally binding, and if it is found that the current legal debt/GDP ceiling has been exceeded, Moreno will be forced to “start a fiscal reordering and programming” according to the Monetary and Fiscal Code.
Also, an important committee of well-known economists from all political trends have met with Moreno to express the need of a change in gears in the conduct of economic policy. Thus, Moreno will have to accompany his nice speech with actions or pay the political price.
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