Election campaign gains momentum; economy decelerated in November 2025; BCRP steps up FX intervention; and MEF to reorganize PetroPerú
We cover three topics in this report. First, we analyze developments in the runup to the April 12 general elections. Second, we look at the economy, and argue that a deceleration began in Q4 2025. Finally, we turn to local financial markets, and discuss the increased FX intervention by the Central Bank, and the Finance Ministry’s decision to reorganize the state oil company PetroPerú.
The period during which political parties were allowed to register candidates for the presidential and congressional elections expired on December 23. Parties were expected to register their presidential candidate, and two vice-presidential candidates; their congressional slates; their two senatorial candidates (one state and one for a single electoral district); and their slates for Andean Parliament. This also marked the beginning of the período de tachas (“period of citizens’ objections”) that runs through February 23. The Jurado Electorales Especiales (JEE, local electoral tribunals) and the Jurado Nacional Electoral (JNE, the national electoral tribunal) have until February 23 to resolve any citizens’ objections. Objections could result from candidates’ failure to comply with Electoral Law, such as by failing to acknowledge in their personal statements any Ministerio Publico or Fiscalía de la Naction (MPFN, the Attorney Office) investigations, or firm judiciary sentences. If JEE and JNE substantiate such objections, JNE may ban those candidates from running. Most objections result from other candidates using their legal counsels to try to remove their fiercest competitors from the race.
Our analysis of the recent high-frequency economic reports was that the economy decelerated in Q4 2025. The Instituto de Estadística e Informatica’s (INEI, the national statistical institute) November real GDP report confirmed this trend. Although the INEI had revised up its full-time series estimates on the back of better-than-expected manufacturing performance, real GDP expanded only 1.5% in November y/y, after advancing 3.9% in October and 4.2% in September.
Looking ahead, we’ve decided to leave our annual growth forecasts unchanged. We anticipate the economy growing at only 3.2% in 2025, below the BCRP’s 3.3% forecast, and the MEF’s 3.5%. We are also keeping our forecasts of 3% for 2026, and 3.2% for 2027.
There have been two significant developments in local financial markets since we published our December report. First, the BCRP stepped up its FX intervention and, second, the government on December 31t published Urgent Decree No. 010-2025, declaring the state oil company Petroperú to be in asset reorganization.
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