End of the Recession and Perspectives for Recovery

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Aug 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

If the end of a recession is defined as the moment when GDP stops contracting, then it is highly likely that the current recession will end in the third quarter this year, after completing 9 quarters. This is what our leading indicator portends, supported by the latest numbers on industrial production, which after a long period of decline has started to expand in recent months. However, the signs from both gross fixed capital formation and household consumption presage a very slow recovery.

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