Erdogan & Putin sign ceasefire in Idlib, will it last?

TURKEY - In Brief 06 Mar 2020 by Atilla Yesilada
After six and a half hours of negotiations, Erdogan and Putin failed to agree on most points of contention concerning Idlib, but preferred to prioritize their strategic alliance. The result is a cease-fire protocol, which calls for division of Idlib into two de-facto zones of control, belonging to the Turkish side and Assad’s government. Will it last, can it be said that military escalation is now over and delayed beyond the “market horizon”. I shall write in detail on Idlib conundrum over the weekend, but most experts I consulted, including those who are close to AKP doubt this cease-fire will last or will be even implemented.The major sticking point in implementation is the article in the protocol calling for Assad forces to withdraw to the South of M4 highway. In return Turkey concedes control of M5 to Assad. It is not likely that Assad will heed this condition, or a potential withdrawal will be permanent.Secondly, Ankara still seeking help from US-NATO to beef up its army’s fighting capacity suggests Even Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Erdogan don’t believe in the permanence of the cease-fire. From a different angle, my survey of international articles focusing on the issues reveal that Syrian refugees in Turkey or currently huddled in squalid camps at the border of Turkey don’t believe in the deal, meaning they shall not return to their homes, keeping the pressure on Turkey. “It also did not detail a “safe zone” or describe how displaced people could return to the homes they have fled to escape the Russian-backed offensive” writes Reuters in the article quoted below, confirming my view that Turkey failed to reach its essential objective through this cease fire. ...

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