Essential CIS Politics: July 17 - August 3, 2026
Key stories
* Ukraine War overview: Russia advanced over 700 square kilometers in July, one of its most successful months since April 2022, getting close to the last of the cities of Ukraine’s fearsome Fortress Belt in Donetsk. Both sides intensified infrastructure strikes; Ukraine targeted Russian fuel refineries, Wildberries logistics warehouses, and ships, forcing a diesel export ban and Sea of Azov closure, and struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea on July 25; Russia destroyed petrol stations along key Ukrainian highways, hit a Kyiv weapons exhibition on July 24 killing at least 11, and continued its assault on Ukrainian energy and port infrastructure, effectively landlocking Ukraine during harvest season; Ukrainian intelligence also reported Russia preparing to receive 30,000 additional troops and new missile launchers from North Korea.
* Peace negotiations overview: Progress stalled again due to the return of the Iran War. Putin is no longer prepared to return occupied Ukrainian territories as part of any peace agreement. Secret German-Russian talks on Ukraine were held in Baku, from July 12–14 without Azerbaijani knowledge; a Lavrov-Rubio meeting in Manila on July 23 produced no progress; Zelenskyy met Trump in Washington on July 28 to discuss Patriot production licenses and diplomacy, although the status of that is unclear. On August 3, Zelenskyy proposed a full-front ceasefire including an end to energy attacks and offered to meet Putin personally.
* Azerbaijan-Russia relations: On July 13, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared full normalization of relations with Russia after a difficult period that began with the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight and intensified with reciprocal arrests in 2025.
* Tajikistan-Iran-Afghanistan transport corridor: On July 14–15, officials from Tajikistan, Iran, and Afghanistan agreed in Mashhad to establish a trilateral road transport corridor designating Afghanistan as a transit hub for commercial goods between Iran and Tajikistan, with a joint working group formed to ease border procedures and a pilot shipment scheduled within one month.
* Political trouble in Ukraine: On July 15, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov amid a cabinet reshuffle, triggering mass protests across more than twenty cities known as the “Cardboard Maidan,” followed by the July 21 dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and his replacement by Mykhailo Drapatyi, while Fedorov continued to refuse alternative roles and demand reinstatement.
* Tokayev in Shanghai: On July 16–17, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and addressed the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, advancing the bilateral strategic partnership with a new 2027–2030 trade roadmap. Various CIS countries participated in the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization by 29 countries including Kazakhstan, Russia, and China.
* Ukraine attacks on Kazakhstan’s CPC Terminal: On July 19 and July 30, drone attacks targeted tankers loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk, suspending loadings of Kazakh oil that accounts for 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s exports and roughly 2 percent of global supply, prompting production cuts at the Tengiz field and fuel price surges in Romania and Moldova.
* 21st EU sanctions package: On July 23, EU ambassadors agreed on the 21st sanctions package against Russia after weeks of disputes among member states over shipping, banking, and individual designations, freezing the oil price cap at USD 44.1 per barrel and expanding restrictions on shadow fleet vessels, banks, crypto platforms, and nearly 250 individuals.
* Tokayev visits Russia: On July 25 Putin and Tokayev met in Omsk on the sidelines of the interregional forum; Tokayev publicly urged Russia to freeze the Ukraine conflict and return to an “Istanbul 2.0” formula while reaffirming the allied relationship; the Kremlin rejected a freeze until its goals were achieved.
* Armenian parliament opening: On August 2, Armenia’s newly elected National Assembly convened its first session without inviting the Catholicos, Karekin II, for the first time in modern history amid ongoing tensions between the church and the ruling party.
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