Essential CIS Politics: March 2021

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 24 Mar 2021 by Alex Teddy and Alexei Panin

* Russia’s economy continues to grow, and data shows that 2020 was better than expected.

* FixPrice’s IPO in London has been a roaring success.

* Ukraine is nationalizing Motor Sich, which will upset China.

* Some EU countries are buying Sputnik V.

* The Kyrgyz president has been on a charm offensive in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

* For the first time in decades Russia was a net food exporter in 2020. On March 9 RBC published an Agriculture Ministry report on this. It showed that the country exported USD 30.7 billion of comestibles. That is 20% higher YoY, at 79 million tons. In 2020 there was a bumper harvest. Global warming is helping this. For 20 years the Kremlin's economic mantra has been: diversify. Russia does not want to be over-reliant on hydrocarbon exports. Russia's agricultural potential is huge given its vast landmass: even though half the territory is infertile due to climactic reasons, there is still enormous space for farming. With cheap labor, cheap energy and lax regulation Russia should be achieving far more in agriculture.

* On March 5 it was announced that FixPrice's IPO in London had gained USD 2 billion in investment. This exceeded expectations. The IPO is now set to be increased. This is record breaking for a Russian retail company. It is the greatest Russian listing in the UK since 2007. FixPrice’s shares hit the upper limit of its target range: the company started trading with a valuation of USD 8.3 billion. The only Russian retail company worth more is Magnit.

* On March 11 it was announced that Kyiv wants to buy the aerospace company Moto Sich. At the moment Chinese companies own most of the shares. Ukraine considers the company vital to national defense. The chief of the Security and Defense Council said that Motor Sich needs to be taken back by Ukraine. Shareholders will receive compensatory payments. China will be angry, but the United States will be elated. The US was anxious lest the tech be transferred to China.

* Hungary is already using Sputnik V, and the Czechs also intend to do so. Russia has 50 million doses of Sputnik V earmarked for export to the EU. Russia is elated with this soft power coup. However, the vaccination rollout in Russia has been progressing at a snail’s pace. Nine of the 74 regions have not received any vaccinations at all. At the time of this writing, Russia had vaccinated 5% of its people, and the UK, which started later, had vaccinated 36% of its people.

* In March Kyrgyz President Japarov flew to Nursultan City for a two-day state visit. He met Tokayev and Nazarbayev. A joint statement issued by the presidents underscored economic cooperation. Much of this is under the auspices of the Eurasian Economic Union, which Kazakhstan currently chairs. Cross border trade is still not what it might be. Seven documents were signed by the presidents. They agreed on military technical assistance, and developed sports and folk games, defense cooperation, foreign policy coordination, trade cooperation, digital development, electricity exchange and sharing natural resources.

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