Essential CIS Politics: September 16 - October 1, 2026
Key topics:
-Ukraine retakes Lyman after months of attacks and blunts the northern threat to Slavyansk, while Russia tightens the ring around Dobropole, nibbles at the Kharkov and Sumy pockets, encircles Terovatoe, and opens a winter campaign against power plants, heating systems and the lines themselves as Ukrainian air defense thins.
-Washington authorizes up to USD 2.68 bn in air-defense sales for Ukraine, including a new missile for the S-300 and GAM-67 interceptors, to be paid for by European partners and unused US financing.
-Donald Tusk tells Polish parliament Ukraine is losing about 27,000 killed and wounded a month, a figure Kyiv does not rebut and that sits beside Budanov’s call to mobilize 30,000 a month.
-Putin orders the armed forces expanded by nearly a million, to 2.4 million under arms, the third-largest military force by active-duty manpower after China and India.
-Peace overview: Poland demands a seat at any Ukraine peace talks, Turkey offers Istanbul as a location again and says contacts can resume before year-end, Trump blames Ukrainian refinery strikes for the diesel crunch, and Zelensky offers a mutual energy halt but not a unilateral one. A short Lavrov–Wadephul meeting produces no agreement.
-Russian strikes on trains and the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge choke grain routes to the Danube, pushing Kyiv toward Baltic ports that would add about USD 100 a tonne and will likely depend on transit rights through Poland that it may not get.
-Putin places Auchan, Leroy Merlin, Nestlé, FM Logistics, and then, Metro under external management, a reversible squeeze on remaining European firms tied to frozen Russian reserves and a wider deficit, rather than a realistic bid to make Berlin sue for peace.
-United Russia takes a record 349 Duma seats in a wartime vote that excluded the real opposition. Senior ministers and governors decline mandates so they can stay in executive posts, leaving the party with a managed but not wholly hollow result.
-A leaked 2024 Russia–Iran plan assigns Rosatom work at Bushehr, aircraft localization, energy fields, the Rasht–Astara rail link and national-currency payments, and predates a closer wartime relationship that now includes drones and possible satellite intelligence.
-Lukashenko says Belarus has no uncontracted potash for the large US purchase proposed by Trump.
-The EU renews sanctions on about 3,000 Russia-related listings for three years only after France and Luxembourg force Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list.
-Brussels still cannot agree on the size and nature of the hole in Ukraine’s budget, refuses to front-load the EUR 90 bn loan without court and anti-corruption laws, and has no agreed source for fixing the issue due to Belgium’s block on the use of frozen Russian assets.
-CAMTO still ranks Russia the world’s second-largest arms exporter in 2025, at about USD 15 bn, with sanctions changing payment channels more than volumes.
-The EBRD cuts Ukraine’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.5 percent as port and energy strikes push grain and oilseed exports down 50 to 60 percent and keep wheat prices high.
-Poland and Belarus hold their first talks in a decade between foreign ministers.
-Procurement records and veterans’ accounts indicate Russia is rebuilding the Perimetr “Dead Hand” command bunker in the Urals.
-A late-August decree lets the Russian state take temporary control of critical sites that fail to fund their own drone defenses.
-Zelensky’s disclosure that Ukraine sent two North Korean prisoners to South Korea draws a furious rebuke from Seoul and signals to other partners that sensitive arrangements may not stay secret.
-Trump approves an early plan to ease Russia sanctions for political prisoners, modeled on Belarus, while Kremlin denies any such talks.
-The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Uzbekistan sketch up to USD 5 bn in infrastructure projects for 2026–2029, centered on power transmission and renewables.
-Russia extends the diesel export ban for producers through October and raises the price benchmarks for domestic fuel subsidies.
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