Essential CIS Politics: September 2021

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 28 Sep 2021 by Alex Teddy and Alexei Panin

* The Russian parliamentary elections led to victory for the ruling party.

The outcome of the election came as no surprise. The United Russia Party is the main pro-Kremlin party, although Putin has not been a member for over 10 years. United Russia has 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma. Turnout was fairly low, and it is alleged that the government ordered civil servants and soldiers to vote. The election is a success for the Kremlin. There were no serious incidents, and there appears to be no outcry despite claims of rigging by the opposition. The has averted the scenario witnessed in Belarus in 2020.

* Russia’s economy is growing steadily but inflation and prices remain a problem.

On September 10 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) raised interest rates to 6.75%. The economy is recovering steadily but inflation threatens this. The need to control inflation was seen as all the more urgent due to legislative elections that took place in mid-late-September. The rate hike surprised no one. It is only surprising that the move was not more drastic: to 7%. The public perceives inflation as being much higher than it really is. The financial sector is haunted by fear of an inflationary spiral that could cause panic buying and thereby drive prices yet higher. The president has given out USD 7 billion in pre-election welfare payments.

* In Ukraine the government has been reassured by Biden that the country will not be abandoned by the US.

On August 31 Washington DC announced up to USD 60 million in military assistance for Ukraine. The United States claimed that Russian military activity in Eastern Ukraine had intensified in recent days and cited mortar attacks as evidence thereof. On the heels of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan people are asking if the US will abandon its allies such as Ukraine. Moscow's jubilance about the US pullout extends to taunting Ukraine that it will be left in the lurch by the Americans. On August 30 President Zelensky arrived in the United States and met President Biden in Washington. The timing is significant. Biden underscored that the United States shall never jettison Ukraine. Biden also exhorted Ukraine to stop peculation. The US is tired of seeing funds disbursed to Ukraine being filched by corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and military officers.

* In Central Asia the triumph of the Taliban has frightened Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which have conducted joint drills with Russian troops.

On August 26 it was reported that Russia has had orders for weapons and helicopters from Central Asian countries. The former Soviet republics in that region are apprehensive as the Taliban has taken over Afghanistan. The Taliban has taken possession of hundreds of tanks, APCs, artillery pieces and choppers left behind by the fleeing Afghan National Army.

* Belarus has agreed to integrate its economy with Russia even further.

On September 9 the presidents of the two countries agreed on 28 policies aimed at binding the two countries closer together. Political unification is not on the agenda. Russia has long desired this, but Belarus does not. In the long run the countries will have the same macro-economic policy, said Putin. He then lavished praise on Belarus as a stalwart ally who cherished Russian ideals.

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