Exports and remittances more important than IMF funding

UKRAINE - Forecast 11 Jul 2018 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk

The big question in the air is whether Ukraine can survive 2019 without help from the IMF. The media shared key messages from a report released by the NBU, which projected that the hryvnia would depreciate powerfully under a “no IMF” scenario, especially if prices of resources on global markets fell. In fact, falling resource prices would nudge Ukraine into new depression, no matter what happened with the IMF. And vice-versa: if export proceeds remain strong, Ukraine can push ahead to 2020, even if a 2018 deal with the Fund never happens. First of all, the Ukrainian economy is in good sh...

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