Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 07 Feb 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for comparisons, nominal figures in January 2024 looked not too bad compared to previous months - usually, tax collection in January drops due to a low number of working days. This year, January’s federal budget revenues were on a par with October and November (in December, revenue collection soars as a result of year-end tax settlements). The government spent R2.7 trln, i.e., below the 2024 average monthly target, but it is also quite the usual effect. As a result, the budget deficit accounted for R308 bn, and the Ministry of Finance estimated it as 0.2% of GDP.s target. The conclusion from the above figures is that in January, the country’s economic performance also looked not too bad. Rosstat just published its 2023 statistics (December including) and reported that GDP grew by 3.6% last year - having exceeded R171 trln in nominal terms. We’ll need a few days to digest this information and come up with a more comprehensive view of 2024.

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