Feeling Like Dorothy Again

TURKEY - Forecast 05 Jul 2013 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadily through the March 2014 local elections, andperhapsthroughthe rest of 2014. Theglobal environment also remains extremely challenging, with markets trying to adjust to a new reality of lesser Fed stimulus and slower growth in emerging markets, notably in China. While we are almost certainly “not in...

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