​Final curtain in S-400 crisis

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Jun 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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I must warn my audience that political uncertainty is escalating very rapidly to the stratosphere, while financial markets are unusually calm.This brief is dedicated to the alarming developments at the S-400 front, but according to a new ORC poll, in Istanbul candidates are head-to-head, raising the odds for a disputed outcome. Additionally, Greek Cypriot Administration just issued arrest warrants for the crew of Turkish exploration vessel Fatih, with its position regarding drilling rights in Cypriote Economic Zone fully supported by EU authorities. Greek Cypriots intend to take the matter to the upcoming EU leaders summit to appeal for sanctions on Turkey. I don’t think markets discount adverse scenarios in any of these three topics, the reasons for which I shall cite at the end of this brief. The S-400 dispute has over the weekend been officially elevated to the crisis status, when US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan sent a letter to his Turkish counterpart retired Gen Hulusi Akar. The latter, leaked to press by several Turkish and foreign forces state that unless Ankara immediately cancels the delivery of S-400s it shall not only be excommunicated from the F-35 fighter jet program by the end of July, but Congress is readying to legislate CAATSA sanctions, which could harm the Turkish economy. Ankara’s unofficial response was quoted by now pro-AKP Hurriyet Daily News: “Turkish officials have told daily Hürriyet that there was no change regarding Turkey’s stance on an S-400 missile defense deal with Russia. The anonymous sources noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s has already said that the purchase from Moscow was a “done deal” and “there is no ba...