Financial needs forecast update

ARGENTINA - In Brief 01 Aug 2018 by Domingo Cavallo

In our report of July 23, with our third quarter forecasts, we have introduced some changes in Table 8, regarding the financial accounts. We raised our forecast of the financing needs from the market to USD 28.6 billion. This compares to the USD 25.9 billion in the second quarter forecast. The increase in the financial need relates to the commitment of the Treasury to cancel a significant amount of nontransferable letters owed to the Central Bank. The rescue of the LEBACs by the Central Bank with the resources obtained from the payment by the Treasury of the nontransferable letters, will make room for Treasury debt in the domestic capital market. But even so, obtaining all this financing at reasonable interest rates will be a big challenge for the Argentine government. Hopefully, once the market takes notes that Argentina is complying with the fiscal targets, the extremely high spread the country is paying right now (close to 600 basis points) will fall to levels not far from those that prevailed before the crisis erupted. Here is a link to our updated forecast report

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