Economics: Financing to the non-financial private sector weakens in the second quarter of 2026
Financing to the non-financial private sector slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, in both its domestic and external components. Consumer credit continues to post high growth rates, but that behavior stems mainly from the banking penetration of segments previously served by SOFOMES and from methodological changes, not from higher household spending. Within that segment, credit cards, durable goods, and personal loans are gradually slowing from high levels, in an environment in which interest rates—except for a slight decline in personal loans, still above 40%—have been largely insensitive to Banxico's reference rate cuts.
Financing to companies is in clear contraction: both bank and non-bank credit (the latter accounting for close to 70% of domestic corporate financing) have fallen, reflecting weak willingness to invest and a greater perception of risk on the part of banks, with manufacturing in contraction, construction volatile, and tourism and restaurant services using credit mainly to sustain working capital. Banxico's Bank Lending Survey (Encuesta de Evaluación Coyuntural del Mercado Crediticio) confirms that companies themselves increasingly cite the general economic situation as the reason for not seeking financing, and the IMORA (Adjusted Delinquency Index) already shows deterioration in personal loans and credit cards, segments tied not only directly to households but also to MSMEs and self-employed workers. While this deterioration is not yet cause for alarm, it could gradually translate into more restrictive credit conditions for the economy as a whole over the coming quarters given that no improvement in well-paid formal employment is expected.
Regarding last week's indicators, it was reported that private consumption grew 1.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in June, implying a slowdown from May (2.6% YoY) and averaging an increase of 2.1% over the January-June period. In June, both domestic and imported goods consumption posted annual gains at a lower level than those seen in May of this year. Related to this, it was reported that the August 2026 consumer confidence indicator remained stagnant relative to the same month a year earlier, after contracting for 19 months on a YoY basis, placing it at very low levels. Three of its five components declined, with the main deterioration observed in the perception of the country's expected economic situation (-2.2 pts) and the current one (-0.9 pts), in line with recent employment performance, which is also reflected in the employment situation subindex, which fell -2.2 points.
It was also reported that gross fixed investment (GFI) rose 5.9% YoY in June, the third increase after 20 consecutive months of declines, placing the January-June 2026 average in positive territory, albeit at a weak rate of 0.8% YoY. The notable increase in June was driven mainly by the construction component (8.8%), and within it, by public construction (a 14.0% YoY increase for the month) and residential construction (6.7% YoY), the latter of which has shown considerable volatility in recent months. Nevertheless, private investment is expected to remain at low levels this year, due both to uncertainty over the USMCA and to the implementation of the constitutional reforms approved in the country.
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