First thoughts on 2022

TURKEY - Forecast 16 Jan 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead.

The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- because it is risky and ill-timed -- is a major source of uncertainty on the economy front, which makes forecasting more difficult than usual.

Another uncertainty concerns politics, with our politics author expecting elections to be held sometime this year, either by the middle of this year (now reduced to 50% odds) or by fall (raised to 35% odds).

Now read on...

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