Five themes relevant to the economic, financial and political perspectives of the country in 2021

PANAMA - Report 25 Mar 2021 by Marco Fernandez and Alex Diamond

We discuss five policy issues that may influence the economic performance of the country in 2021: whether or not the newly published results of 2020 will affect our 4.9% projection for the year, the effects of the most recent downgrade of the sovereign debt, the political economy of the dialogue about pension reform, the increasing populist drive of the legislature, and the prospects for the economy of a vaccination process that is moving efficiently so far.

There are reasons for optimism on most fronts, but we argue that fiscal consolidation is a necessary condition for maintaining the sovereign investment grade. The fiscal consequences of a reform of the CSS pension program must be included in any solution resulting from the National Dialogue. The time has come for President Cortizo to exercise his leadership within the PRD Party and the legislators.

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