Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead in the runoff has been narrowing, both campaigns signed a waiver at the TSE to disclose their confidential records, and the runoff will be held this Sunday, October 25

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 23 Oct 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

The three polls released yesterday (October 22) all point in the same direction: Flávio remains numerically ahead in every poll, but his lead has been narrowing, while Lula’s rejection rate has declined. This is an election that will be decided by the details: turnout, undecided voters, and performance in tonight’s debate, at 9:20 p.m. local time on TV Globo, the final debate before the vote. Yesterday, the two campaigns signed an agreement before the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to simultaneously waive the banking, tax, and telephone confidentiality of the candidates, their relatives, and companies linked to them. Lula issued the challenge during the Band debate on Sunday (October 18). Next week, once the president-elect has been determined, the transition process will begin.

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