From refineries to airspace: Russia's war enters a new phase of escalation

UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Sep 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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The war is clearly entering a new phase of escalation. Widely discussed and widely expected, it is now unfolding in real time. Zelenskiy's statement on September 1 that Russian airspace will effectively be closing marks a new level of pressure on Moscow and St Petersburg — one that the Russian leadership may find particularly uncomfortable on the eve of the stage-managed Duma elections on September 18-20. Zelenskiy did not threaten civilian aircraft. Instead, he warned airlines, insurers and foreign governments that there would soon be so many Ukrainian drones operating over Russia that regular civilian aviation would become increasingly difficult to sustain. Ukrainian civilian aviation has been effectively grounded since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 because of the security risks created by Russian attacks. Why should Russia remain insulated from the consequences of the war it started? Interestingly, the idea itself appears not to be entirely new. The Atlantic reported in August that former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov had been one of the driving forces behind a plan to use large numbers of drones to disrupt Moscow's airports for extended periods. Zelenskiy reportedly had serious reservations about the risks to civilian aviation but nevertheless allowed preparations to continue. The project was eventually halted after Fedorov's dismissal in July. There were substantial diplomatic efforts to made Russia stop its aggression. CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow on August 25 for talks with senior Russian intelligence officials. Zelenskiy has now disclosed that, at Washington's request, Ukraine refrained from strikes on Mos...