GDP down 4.0% y-o-y in 3Q22, weekly inflation remains subdued

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 17 Nov 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that the country's GDP was down by 4.0% in 3Q22 according to its flash estimate. No other details have been published. If so, then it means that seasonally adjusted Q-o-Q GDP didn't increase in 3Q22. It also means that in 9M22, GDP could be down by 1.7% y-o-y implying that in 2022 as a whole, GDP may contract by no more than 3% Though, the effect of the partial mobilization is not yet known, it could further suppress consumption, meaning that in 4Q22, GDP may further contract Q-o-Q. If the latter happens, then GDP may fall by more than 1.0% next year as there are no clear signs yet of what could be the driving force for economic recovery next year. Meanwhile, Rosstat also reported that inflation in the seven days ending on November 14, was 0.06% which brought the MTD figure to 0.07% - an indication that domestic demand remains suppressed. Inflation YTD reached 10.74%. The m-o-m in November could be around 0.2%, and in 2022 as a whole it may fall well below 11.5%. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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