GDP grew 3.3% in 2021, flash estimate

UKRAINE - In Brief 04 Feb 2022 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
UkrStat, the State Statistics Office, reported 5.9% GDP growth in 4Q 2021. This means that GDP grew 3.3% y/y for the full-year 2021. No details are available so far on the contributors of growth but we know for sure that agro-production was the main driver of GDP jump in the last quarter of the year. The result is slightly lower than we expected (we estimated 3.7% y/y). However, it exceeded the NBU forecast of 3.0% GDP growth. We anticipate the economy will slow in 2022 amid the expected crops’ decline and the gradual unwinding of monetary and fiscal stimuli worldwide. We project GDP growth to ease to 2.8% in 2022. State officials, predictably, irradiate optimism and project GDP speeding up to 3.4% y/y in 2022.

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