GDP growth markedly slowed in 3Q25

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 17 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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In the aftermath of 9M25 economic statistics published somewhat two weeks ago that pointed to a persistent deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently released its 3Q25 y-o-y GDP growth flash estimate at 0.6%. No more details, such as Q-o-Q GDP growth (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted) are currently available. Given that in 1Q25 and 2Q25 GDP grew by 1.4% and 1.1% y-o-y (and by 1.2% y-o-y in 1H25) it looks as though in 9M25 GDP was up by about 1.0% y-o-y. This figure matches the previously published 0.9% y-o-y 9M25 growth of the short-term indicator, i.e., a monthly proxy for the nation’s economic activity that aggregates trends in the five main segments of the economy. Both monthly and quarterly numbers are consistent and point to a persistent deceleration in economic growth with no clear tipping point in sight yet. That said, it looks likely that in 2025 GDP may grow by about 0.5% or only slightly higher as in 4Q24 economic growth reportedly accelerated to 4.5% y-o-y. In 4Q24 GDP grew by 1.1% Q-o-Q in seasonally adjusted terms. Given current trends a similar acceleration in 4Q25 looks highly unlikely, albeit not completely impossible if all underreported 9M25 economic activity is incorporated into 4Q25 statistics. Whatever the statistical outcome will be in 2025, Russia’s recent economic trends clearly indicate that the growth model that in recent years will likely start changing as the country faces various challenges. Leaving aside geopolitical issues, an overly strong ruble, high interest rates and stagnating household credit will keep dragging on economic growth in the near future.