GDP growth moderated in 1Q26 but followed by stronger economic performance in April

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 18 May 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of Economic Statistics reported that GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 1Q26 with the mining sector down by 11.4% y-o-y and manufacturing delivering 8.5% y-o-y growth. Industry in total contracted by 0.1% y-o-y. Trade (wholesale and retail combined) grew by 4.8% y-o-y. Construction was up by 14.8%. We previously mentioned that GDP growth moderation looked inevitable amid disruption of oil exports via CPC. What looked particularly interesting on the production side of 1Q26 national accounts was that taxes on products grew by a mere 2.5% y-o-y in real terms, i.e., well behind GDP, supporting the view that the effect of tax reform (VAT in particular) was offset by a rather moderate increase of corporate profits trimmed by the appreciated tenge. Overall, the nation’s economy is doing well, as April statistics looks much better with the mining being up by 5.0% y-o-y (oil extraction was up by 3.9%) and manufacturing growth soaring to 14.1% y-o-y. In 4M26, the mining segment was still down by 7.3% y-o-y (with oil extraction down by 13.9%). Manufacturing grew in 4M26 by 9.9% y-o-y almost all across the board apart from the metallurgy. Investments in production capacity grew by 6.7% y-o-y in 4M25. Hence, recently published statistics support the view that in 2026, the Kazakh GDP could be up by about 5.0%.