GDP up by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M21 pointing to a deceleration in 2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Dec 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

Rosstat reported that Russia’s nominal GDP reached R33.9 trln in 3Q21. In 4Q21 the nominal figure will be even higher so that GDP in 2021 as a wh0le will exceed R128 trln, as was reported in our recent forecast. The 9M21 GDP was up by 4.6% y-o-y - having increased by 4.3% y-o-y in 3Q21 and by 7.4% Q-o-Q (not seasonally adjusted). Manufacturing grew in 9M21 by 4.7% which was faster than mining (2.4%). Though, manufacturing growth is seen decelerating, while growth in mining gets stronger. The finance and insurance segment was up by 9.6% y-o-y in 9M21, trade (retail and wholesale combined) grew by 9.0% over the same period, while construction increased by 5.4% y-o-y. These numbers are in line with the aforementioned forecast that suggests that GDP this year will be up by around 4.2%, and will decelerate in 2022.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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