​GDP was up by 3.5% y-o-y in 1Q22 – better than expected

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 19 May 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP was up by 3.5% in 1Q22, which was not too bad a result given that in March the economy was already affected by the "special military operation". Therefore, the fact that the most recent forecast by the Economics Ministry, published a couple of days ago, was less pessimistic is quite understandable (the Ministry most likely knew preliminary calculations of Rosstat before they were published). On June 1, the statistical agency will publish monthly statistics for April and there will be more information to evaluate the effect of military activity and sanctions on the Russian economy. At a glance, given the 1Q22 GDP growth, it cannot be ruled out that the recession in 2022 may not be as deep as even the recent forecast by the Economics ministry (-7.8%).Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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