Good news on consumer inflation in November

HUNGARY - In Brief 09 Dec 2025 by Istvan Racz

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CPI-inflation for November has been reported at 0.1% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning. The year-on-year rate dropped quite substantially, from the previous 4.3%, and it fell into the MNB target range for the first time this year. Non-fuel inflation dropped to 4.6% yoy, i.e. by two decimal points from the previous monthly reading, and core inflation edged down slightly to 4.1% yoy as well.Compared to analyst expectation, this is to be regarded as good news. In Portfolio.hu's regular monthly poll, the median expectation for the headline rate was exactly 4% yoy. It is quite likely that half of the positive surprise came from fuel prices. Based on data from the continuously operated Holtankoljak.hu fuel price watching website ('hol tankoljak' literally means 'where should I fill up my gas tank'), it appeared that the average retail fuel price went up by 0.6% in November, whereas in KSH data, it actually fell by 0.6% mom, 5% yoy. Indirectly, this suggests that the median analyst expected +0.3% mom for non-fuel prices, against which KSH's number was +0.2% only.All in all, November's better-looking CPI-data came from a fuel-related base effect (as domestic fuel prices rose substantially between last November and January this year), depressed current international oil/fuel prices, the strong forint (EURHUF down 6.2%, USDHUF down 13.8% yoy in November), and the impact of administrative price controls, on which the latest available MNB estimate is 1.3%-points in total. So, consumer inflation in November was either 3.8% yoy (the headline rate), or 4.1% yoy (the core rate), or 5.1% yoy (the headline rate + the impact of price controls) or close to 6% yoy if one adds the price control im...