Growth Disappoints, Basci Uplifts

TURKEY - Report 10 Dec 2014 by Murat Ucer
Turkish GDP came in lower than expected in the third quarter of the year -- 1.7% actual vs. 2.9% forecast, y/y – the main culprits being a large contraction in agriculture from the production side and inventory drawdown from the expenditure side. In the year through Q3, GDP thus expanded by 2.8%, y/y, on the basis of which, together with the mixed nature of Q4 data so far, both our 3.2% and MTP’s 3.3% growth forecasts look optimistic. But given the margins of error and possibility of backward revisions, we do not revise it for now. At any rate, the bigger point – that Turkish growth may be ...

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