Growth falls amid global energy crisis

CHINA - Report 28 Oct 2021 by FAN Gang and Chunyang Wang

Growth slowed, with real estate investment cooling dramatically. In Q3, GDP rose 4.9% y/y, the same rate as in Q3 2020, and lower than in Q2 2021. Industrial output in Q3 rose 4.9% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q3 2020, and was up 2.1% y/y in September -- a major fall.

Investment was up 7.3% y/y, with annualized growth of 4%, down 0.5 pps from H1. The real estate market cooled precipitously, with real estate investment falling -3.5% y/y. On October 23rd, the central government announced that it would implement a real estate tax in a few cities as an experiment -- and we expect this policy to negatively impact the real estate industry further.

Retail sales of consumption goods rose 5.1% y/y in Q3, and retail sales grew 3.2% y/y in real terms. Sales grew 6.1% y/y from Q3 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 3%, down 1.6 pps from Q2. In Q3 2021, trade was still strong, though weaker than in Q2. Exports in Q3 rose 14.5% y/y, down 5.6 pps from Q2. Imports increased 16.2% y/y, down 15.4 pps.

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