Growth: Good Headline, Poor Dynamics

TURKEY - Report 10 Jun 2015 by Murat Ucer
GDP growth came in at 2.3%, y/y, in the first quarter of the year, better than both the consensus (1.6%, CNBC-e) and our even weaker (1%-1.5%) forecasts. But this hardly changes the fact that the underlying growth dynamics or momentum remains weak. It looks like private consumption drove growth in Q1, which expanded by 4.5%, y/y (3.8%, resident and non-resident combined), with the other expenditure components coming in 'broadly' in line with expectations.Even consumption growth comes with some caveats, however. An examination of its sub-categories suggests that one specific category alone (...

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