Growth Revival? Don’t Hold Your Breath

CHINA - Forecast 25 Nov 2013 by FAN Gang
Executive Summary Though GDP rose 0.2 pp in Q3, to 7.8 y/y, the pick-up was mainly due to certain temporal factors. Q4 growth is likely to retreat to 7.7% in Q4, and next year. Investment expansion has been the main growth driver, and is increasing faster than last year. Infrastructure and urban reconstruction are still the main sectors of attraction, while investment in property development is showing signs of slowing. We don’t expect general investment growth to rise further. Both monetary policy and fiscal policy have been neutral this year. The Central Bank has not cut the baseline inte...

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