GULF WEEKLY: Aramco bond, UAE OPEC exit rumors, Trump considered an Iran strike

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 20 Nov 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:

* OPEC+ is musing a 3-6 month taper delay, and there are rumors the UAE will quit (it won’t...yet).
* Trump considered a strike on Iran, while Zarif urged Biden not to wait until June to lift sanctions.
* Aramco issued $8bn, including the first 50-year Saudi bond, but priced above the sovereign.
* Saudi is considering a Yemen ceasefire as the war looks increasingly unwinnable.
* The UAE extended its TESS stimulus for another six months.
* Qatar’s fiscal consolidation continued in Q3, and its deficit for Jan-Sep was just -1% of GDP.
* Oman is seeking a $1bn loan to refinance one that matures in January.
* Expat worker numbers in Oman are down -17% y/y.
* Bahrain’s parliament is pushing for a larger contribution to the budget from Mumtalakat.
* A 29-year truce in Western Sahara between Morocco and Polisario broke down.

Now read on...

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