GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain issues, Saudi on negative outlook, coronavirus slows further

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 May 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include:

* Moody’s put Saudi on negative outlook, expecting a 12% of GDP deficit and debt rising to 45%.
* Bahrain issued $2bn, split into 4.5yr (6.2%) and 10yr (7.4%) tranches, with a $11bn order book.
* Coronavirus active infection growth slowed for a fourth week to 34% w/w, a third of the high.
* The US withdrew two Patriot missiles from Saudi, seemingly signalling reduced Iran concerns.
* Dubai is seeking to secure loans on toll road revenue. Expo 2020 was formally postponed a year.
* QIA is raising a €7bn loan secured on its holdings in blue-chip European equities.
* Qatar published the region’s first April statistical data, showing sharp drops in visitor arrivals (-78% y/y) and weaker electricity consumption.
* PMIs improved slightly in Saudi in April, fell slightly in UAE and fell sharply in Qatar.
* Trump vetoed Congress’s war powers resolution aimed at mitigating the risk of war with Iran.
* Iraq finally formed a government, including the excellent Ali Allawi as finance minister.
* Egypt is close to receiving approval for $2.7bn in IMF rapid financing.
* Israel’s supreme court permitted Netanayhu to form a government, which will annex settlements.

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