GULF WEEKLY: Concerns grow for renewed US-Iran clashes, Saudi Arabia cuts subsidies, Qatar buys more US LNG
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* There were more signs of US post-election strike plans, despite mediation by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
* The inconclusive Israeli election may also give Netanyahu political motivations to revive the war.
* Prediction markets imply nearly a 50% risk of renewed US strikes by mid-November.
* The Houthis hit Ras Tanura refinery. Egypt and Turkey moved closer to authorizing deployments.
* Saudi Arabia is reducing utility subsidies, partly offset by allowances to public workers and retirees.
* A UAE-Canada CEPA was signed after a record of just 47 days of negotiations.
* Dubai’s non-oil GDP contracted by -6% in Q2, led by hospitality (-32%) and internal trade (-14%).
* Adnoc indicated that the UAE’s second bypass pipeline will begin operating in early 2027.
* Apollo is taking about a 10%/$1bn stake in Mubadala Capital and allocating additional assets to it.
* QatarEnergy signed a second US LNG deal, for 3m t/yr with Woodside, as a hedge against Hormuz.
* The loan/deposit ratio for Qatar’s banks rose to a record 142% as deposits fell for a third month.
* Kuwait’s international reserves declined for a sixth month to a 10-year low and -22% below March.
* Kuwait’s cabinet finally approved a law to implement excise taxes on tobacco and sugary drinks.
* Oman’s tourist numbers rebounded in August to the most since January and were nearly flat y/y.
* An Omani-British consortium led by Mubbadrah is planning a 400MW green data center in Salalah.
* Bahrain’s parliament voted to hike the Bahrainization ratio for privatizations, risking investment.
* Egypt hiked rates by +100bp, the first since March 2024, as inflation rises and the pound hit a low.
* Databank updates: Dubai GDP, Bahrain inflation, Oman tourism, GCC snapshot page.
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