GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low.
* Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed).
* There appears to be more optimism in the Iran nuclear talks, and another round of Saudi-Iran talks is expected in Iraq soon.
* Some stimulus programs have been further extended, including the UAE’s TESS and Saudi SME loan deferrals.
* Fitch revised Oman’s outlook up to Stable, and CI revised Saudi Arabia’s outlook to Stable.
* Saudi Arabia is reportedly manufacturing ballistic missiles with Chinese assistance.
* The UAE is contemplating major reforms to the import monopolies that were the sources of wealth of many of its major family conglomerates.
* Dubai tourist numbers reached three-quarters of the pre-Covid level in November, but Oman’s are still down by two-thirds. A proxy for Bahrain tourism in November suggested that it was not far behind pre-Covid levels.
* ADIA is investing $1.8bn in US LNG exporter Sempra.
* QatarEnergy has secured a 21% stake in a Brazilian oilfield expected to produce up to 350k b/d.
* Kuwait’s new government includes a reformist finance minister and a record four co-opted MPs, raising hopes for an end to the deadlock in parliament, particularly over the debt law.
* Shell took a majority stake in Oman’s Mabrouk North East gas concession, due to produce 0.5bcf/d by 2024.
* Iraq’s election results were certified by the supreme court, and Sadr is expected to form a government that is narrower than its unwieldy predecessors.
* In Yemen, the Houthis have not yet assaulted Marib but have made gains near the Saudi border.
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