GULF WEEKLY: Fitch positive on Saudi, Dubai posts strong indicators, Abu Dhabi gives mixed signals on Egypt investment

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Apr 2022 by Justin Alexander

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil is up as a potential EU ban on Russia and further JCPOA delay outweighs cuts in demand forecasts.
* The Yemen ceasefire is largely holding and the new presidential council pledged to work towards peace.
* Fitch lifted Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive and forecasts a surplus of 6.7% of GDP at $100/barrel.
* Leading House Democrats are calling on the US to recalibrate its relationship with Saudi Arabia.
* Dubai posted some strong leading indicators on house sales, business licences and the PMI.
* Dewa shares are up 11% in the first three days of trading after its $6.1bn IPO.
* ADQ made $1.9bn in equity investments in Egypt but FAB unexpectedly dropped its bid for EFG Hermes.
* Fitch affirmed Qatar and sees its general government surplus surging to 15.1% of GDP.
* Qatar pledged humanitarian aid for Ukraine at a donor conference as Russia attacked a Qatari-operated port.
* Qatar detained Bahraini fishermen in the latest in a long series of bilateral maritime disputes.
* Kuwait appears to be trying to move forward the debt law despite high oil prices and tensions with parliament.
* Kuwait and Saudi Arabia called talks with Iran on the Divided Zone maritime border over the Dorra gasfield.
* Oman released some more detailed fiscal data for Dec-Feb.
* S&P affirmed Bahrain at B+ and sees a deficit of -1.5% of GDP at $70/barrel.
* Moody’s expects that Lebanon eurobond holders will face at least a 65% haircut.
* GCC Databank updates: World Bank and rating agency forecasts, full-year GDP growth graphs, monthly series.

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