GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Dec 2021 by Justin Alexander

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand.
* The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in the official communique.
* Iran made a nuclear monitoring concession but talks in Vienna adjourned until after Christmas.
* Saudi Q3 non-oil GDP was up 6.1% y/y and 3.0% above Q3 2019.
* Saudi is budgeting for a 2.5% of GDP surplus. It is planning a green bond next year.
* Dubai tourist numbers increased by 66% m/m in October to a post-Covid high, and Expo visitor numbers suggest November could have been even stronger.
* Israel’s prime minister visited Abu Dhabi, showing normalization continues despite a cancelled oil deal.
* The UAE threatened to cancel its $23bn order for US jets and drones over onerous conditions.
* Qatar’s inflation jumped to 6.1% in October, the highest since 2008 and more than other Gulf states.
* The health of Kuwait’s Emir was good enough to greet MBS on his visit, but not to attend the Gulf summit.
* Oman released some more plausible estimates for the 2021 fiscal outturn of -3.9% of GDP. Its budget for 2022 is for a -4.6% of GDP deficit, but this assumes a conservative $50 oil price.
* Oman’s minister of finance said that a personal income tax will not be implemented this year.
* Lebanon deported members of Bahrain’s Wefaq opposition party, in response to GCC pressure.
* Tunisia announced a constitutional referendum for July and a further year of parliament suspension.
* Libya hasn’t announced a final list of candidates for elections next week, which will likely be delayed.

Now read on...

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