GULF WEEKLY: IMF forecasts improve, Moody’s stabilizes Oman, Sadr wins the Iraqi election

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 Oct 2021 by Justin Alexander

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil rose to $85 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, and Saudi played down a faster taper.
* The IMF’s latest WEO forecasts see the GCC returning to a general fiscal balance in 2023.
* MBS launched the Saudi National Investment Strategy and got a boost from an Australian investment in mining and metals.
* AWCA Power ended its first week trading higher by 23%, and 45 other Saudi IPOs are under consideration.
* The UAE federal budget was approved, and the country will issue more USD bonds next year.
* Dubai Expo received 411k visits in the first ten days, but will need to triple this rate to meet its target.
* Moody’s revised up DEWA’s outlook to stable, also a proxy for improving views on the Dubai sovereign.
* Fertiglobe’s IPO looks likely to price at a $6bn valuation, and IHC plans to IPO its tech arm, Multiply.
* Qatar’s PMI surged to a new record of 60.6, led by manufacturing.
* Qatar Petroleum has rebranded as “Qatar Energy”, and the country will not rejoin OPEC.
* Kuwait’s national dialogue is progressing, and a draft reform plan is under consideration.
* Moody’s restored Oman’s stable outlook and sees the deficit narrowing to -0.5% of GDP in 2022.
* Oman may be getting a third green hydrogen project, this time in Salalah, backed by Marubeni and Linde.
* Capital Intelligence downgraded Bahrain to B+.
* Saudi Arabia has permitted children to cross to Bahrain again, boosting tourist flows significantly.
* Egypt local bonds are being added to the JP Morgan GBI-EM. Lebanon suffered the worst street violence since 2008. Tunisia formed a new government, and Sadrists led in Iraq’s election.

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