GULF WEEKLY: Iranian strikes kill in four Gulf states, Brent at $100 despite IEA release, East-West Pipeline nears 7m b/d, Qatalum continues operations

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 13 Mar 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Iran’s attacks on the GCC continued this week, but the cadence seems to have slowed somewhat.
* There were fatalities from strikes in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
* Sites hit included the Ruwais refinery (Abu Dhabi), Sitra refinery (Bahrain) and a fuel depot in Oman.
* Mojtaba Khamenei’s first statement as supreme leader called on Gulf states to close US bases.
* Brent returned to $100 after tanker attacks and Oman’s accessible crude hit a record $144 today.
* The US energy secretary said escorts through Hormuz might not start until the end of March.
* Equity markets ranged from a -9.8% decline for Dubai to a 4.9% increase for Oman.
* Saudi Arabia’s Q4 GDP non-oil growth slowed to 3.2%, led by trade & hospitality and manufacturing.
* In Aramco’s earning call, the CEO said the East-West Pipeline will soon reach 7m b/d flow.
* S&P affirmed Abu Dhabi and the UAE, cutting GDP growth but anticipating higher oil revenue.
* Qatar’s aluminum smelter is not being shut down after all, but just cut to 60% capacity.
* Oman’s long-serving deputy prime minister, Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud al-Said, died aged 85.
* OPEC data revised down Bahrain’s pre-war oil output, which was a third below quota in Dec-Feb.
* Bahrain’s official preliminary 2025 fiscal deficit was -9.1% of GDP (excluding off-budget spending).
* The Israeli assault on Lebanon intensified, killing over 700 so far and displacing a fifth of the country.
* Databank updates: Saudi and Bahrain fiscal; Saudi GDP; UAE inflation; OPEC+ oil; UAE and Bahrain forecasts.

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