GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s emir returns to a crisis, Covid worsens, IMF lifts Bahrain debt forecasts
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Covid cases are on the rise, particularly in Bahrain and Kuwait, and new restrictions are being introduced.
* Saudi Arabia rehashed a Yemen ceasefire proposal that the Houthis unsurprisingly rejected. This comes as their attacks on Saudi oil facilities continue, including at least two hits in the last week.
* The Suez Canal blockage is inhibiting GCC trade with Europe and the US and is pushing up energy prices.
* Aramco’s earnings were broadly as expected. It confirmed cuts in capex and highlighted green initiatives.
* Draft bills penalizing Saudi Arabia over Khashoggi were backed by the US House Foreign Affairs Committee.
* Sheikh Hamdan, the UAE’s finance minister for half a century and Dubai’s deputy ruler, has died.
* The UAE is building its soft power credentials, mediating on India-Pakistan and Sudan-Ethiopia.
* Qatar signed an LNG supply contract with China’s Sinopec and issued a giant tender for LNG carriers.
* Kuwait’s emir returned after tests and treatment for his stomach cancer. He returned to an intensifying political crisis related to the annulment of Bader al-Dahoum’s membership in parliament.
* The IMF forecasts Bahrain’s debt will rise to 155% of GDP in 2026.
* Fitch raised Iraq’s B- outlook to stable and sees the deficit easing to -5% of GDP this year.
* Hopes for progress this week on government formation in Lebanon were dashed by a Hariri-Aoun spat.
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